Wednesday, May 25, 2005

Cellular is Dead

The cellular industry has reached its peak approximately 20 years after it started its market penetration.

It's problem is that it is no longer innovating, but instead putting up barriers to its consumers in an attempt to continue its dominance. It will last for a while, but unlike its matriarchs (AT&T and the baby bells) it will reach its demise within 5 years after an open network takes hold in cities either through municipal wireless or a cheap WiMAX provider.

Don't expect it to come from the likes of Verizon or Cingular - if they won't open up their handsets or proactively provide you with cheaper calling plans - don't expect them to open their networks.

REDUX: 6/15/2005 - One thing I forgot to mention is that once this does occur, the major providers of voice service will be ISP's and ASP's such as Yahoo and MSN. I say this now given today's announcement that Yahoo just bought Dialpad.